Longtermism at the Crossroads

A conversation with Philosophy Professor Kieren Setiya of MIT, on the concepts and challenges of longtermism as articulated by William McAskill.

Summary

At the Long Now Boston Conversation event on December 6, 02022, Professor Kieren Setiya pointed out that longtermism is a new iteration of utilitarianism that argues against geographical and temporal partiality.  While it brings attention to our global long term responsibilities, it overemphasizes hypothetical quantifications of future goods at the expense of current harms and fails to address the negative consequences of systemic injustice.

“If we factor in uncertainty using the tools of expected value theory, we find that tiny chances of extinction swamp the moral mathematics.”   

These flaws can be answered by adopting a more expansive consideration of the past and future trajectories of the human narrative.  We have been making progress in our pursuit of a more just and ethical world.  We share an ethical obligation to continue this progress and contribute to a future that is more just and offers greater good for those that it inhabit it.  This includes taking responsibility for the collective and systemic defects in our current world.  As Long Now Boston has advocated, this means learning how to be a better ancestor.

“An alternative view is that size doesn’t matter in itself. We should care not about the number of human lives, but the continuation of the human story.  This is in part about preservation; but mere survival is not enough, for we have unfinished business: think of the injustice of the world; our ignorance; our untapped creativity and our inhibited capacity for love.”

For more about the controversies of longtermism, see Professor Setiya’s book review The New Moral Mathematics (Boston Review), and recent articles The Heavy Price of Longtermism (New Republic), or Longtermism: How good intentions and the rich created a dangerous creed, (The Guardian)

Professor Satiya was also recently featured in Nautilus magazine: Life is Hard and That’s Good, where he discusses his recent book , Life is Hard: How Philosophy Can Help Us Find Our Way (2022).

About the speaker:

Kieran Setiya is the Philosophy Section Head in the Department of Linguistics and Philosophy at MIT.  He works on issues in ethics, epistemology, and the philosophy of mind and is the author of a number of books including Knowing Right From Wrong (2012) and Midlife: A Philosophical Guide (2017). His new book, Life is Hard: How Philosophy Can Help Us Find Our Way (2022) was just released.  In August, Professor Setiya published a book review The New Moral Mathematics (Boston Review) commenting on the philosophical consequences of Longtermism as articulated by William MacAskill in What We Owe the Future (2022).

Engineering for Long Term Solutions

Engineering for Long Term Solutions

Long Now Boston and The Maintainers joined forces to present a conversation melding our two key concepts of long-term thinking and the maintenance mindset. The event was led by Maintainers Movement Fellow Tona Rodriguez-Nikl and hosted on June 6 02022 within the Long Now Boston conversation series. 

VIDEO:  Recording

Introduction

The conversation event was led by 2022 Maintainers Fellow Tona Rodriguez-Nikl. Tona is a professor in the department of Civil Engineering at California State University, Los Angeles. In addition to technical research, he is interested in the broader impacts of technological development and the role of engineers and technology as we address climate change and other future challenges.  Tona introduced each of the speakers.  Their comments are summarized as follows:

Bill Bulleit – Emeritus Professor of structural engineering at Michigan Tech

The Engineering Way of Thinking (EWT): Uncertainty and the Future

  • EWT is way to approach design, using heuristics, to develop, maintain, and and manage artifacts (all in their broadest sense of their terms)
  • Heuristics: anything that aids a probable solution 
  • EWT is knowing that failure will emerge
  • Because we live in a world of uncertainty, we want to make space for small failures and experimentation for all the big stakes in our world. 

Key ideas:

  • Think globally, act locally
  • Many experiments, with corresponding criteria for failure, are required.
  • Diversity in the broad sense, is essential
  • Big, relative to the system, is bad

Guru Madhavan – Director of Programs, National Academy of Engineering 

Politics of Recognition

  • Maintenance is simultaneously  life and larger than life. 
  • Engineers often celebrate themselves as innovators, when a vast majority of Engineers are maintainers, trying to avoid disruption. Engineers may need a re-branding, both in how engineers are viewed by the general public, but also how they view themselves!

Politics of Project Management 

  • We are well familiar with the delays of mega-projects (of a billion dollars or more), especially as they relate to maintenance, often over by 200-1400%.
  • When lacking concrete goals:  schedules, costs, and teams get derailed in mega-projects. 
  • Monitoring accountability is necessary, and we must create pathways of conversation between maintainers and those planning/engineering.

Today’s innovations are tomorrow’s vulnerabilities. Without maintenance, failures flourish.

  • We need to grapple with the politics of recognition, and the politics of project management. This is how we can responsibly channel the role of engineering if we are to tackle any wicked problems. 

Donna Riley – Professor of Engineering Education at Purdue University

Engineering and social justice: Power relationships must be named and challenged in regards to who is involved in problem definition.

  • Who defines our problems? We have many futurists telling us what we “ought” to want. We must question: A future for whom, and what is the quality of that future for all?

Many disasters have been long in the making. 

Engineers tend to be ahistorical (Donna says this as an engineer). 

  • Engineers cite unanticipated consequences, however Henry Petroski points to the big bridge collapse, and how similar bridges have failed for similar reasons… had engineers learned engineering history, they would have learned from these failures. 
  • However, Donna argues, more than nuts and bolts history, we also have a social history.
  • Eg: Before the Flint, Michigan water crisis, there was a Flint governance, racism, economic crisis… Fixing the pipes doesn’t solve the problem for a long term. If we don’t look at each of these aspects, we’re not certain we’ll reach a long term solution. 

Moving to an ecosystem focus for engineers, and increasing engagement between engineers and non-engineers, is needed to contribute to problem solving together. Engineers need to be less arrogant and more humble (also saying this as an Engineer). 

Kai Whiting – Researcher and Lecturer, Sustainability and Stoicism, UCLouvain

What does ancient living tell us about the ways in which we desire “the good life”? 

  • Eg: We build a bridge not to cross a river, we build the bridge because something or someone we want to connect with is on the other side. 

What is the meaning of life? To exist – or to do something more? The good life = the life worthy of being lived. Humans are naturally sociable. What we need is good character overall. 

  • Character building to live a good life: Developing the wisdom to moderate yourself for the sake of the whole community. To know what is good/bad/and to take courage for a collective good, not just for the self. 
  • Eg: What’s best for me, is what is best for all… not one size fits all. 
  • We all have commitments to different arenas. What are my skills? What community am I in? How can I collaborate with my network? How can I think carefully about the knowledge that I have to offer and what is my role? I have multiple hats in multiple parts of life. 

Conversation and Discussion:

Tona: We ought to rationally think about our situations and our impacts. Parallels to Bill’s presentation in thinking about our situation to make change. This is Engineering work. Donna’s contribution about who decides, relates to Kai’s question of “why” do we do what we do and how do we manage it.  Panel: highlighted role of the engineer, and how we hold together 

  • Non engineers can learn from engineers. 
  • Engineers can learn from non engineers. 

What are the limitations behind the scope of experimentation? 
Bill: long term solution is actually to maintain, alter, then maintain again. Because we don’t have any set goals, or know exactly where we’re going yet…. Any experiment or any movement within a system should not require decisions that could lead to collapse, so instead, make small changes within a complex system. 

Eg: the baby formula fiasco: the problem in one plant set the whole crisis  in motion. 

Donna: Bringing values into the conversation and assuring that the voices that need to be there are at the center. 

  • Engineering principles… which values? What if engineers were taught they’re supposed to value nature, but this ends up supporting national ideals, and the locals get made invisible. Eg: Need Science, but with room  for the people to raise questions 
  • This all relates to thinking small, and it’s a nice experiment to add  thinking long. Vulnerabilities are created when not thinking long term. How to provide visible, shared, and community values in more equitable ways.
  • Tona asks: how do you do this!?: how do we bring in a topic of virtues when people aren’t interested in thinking about it. 
  • Seneca: we learn not for school, but for life. How to create this space for students… when folks are thinking broader. 

General vs liberal education. How to give an introduction about how each field thinks about something. How can educators of engineers bridge this gap? Engineering the way of thinking about education. 

Engineering the questions of Know How vs Know What. We’re still clueless about how to competently build things now. 

  • Something to keep in mind: how do you avoid premature speedbumps? 
  • How do we prematurely slow down so that projects can evolve? 

Mega projects – a better transition to clean energy  will involve mega projects. Something to think about: maintenance of the mundane or the subliminal. We don’t currently have a system to achieve a design approach for net zero. 

  • Local public utilities:how  to do large scale projects on a small scale… requires talking about coordination
  • Large projects create cost overruns / how to negotiate commitments 
  • How deal with Uncertainty 

What we need to be asking:  how do energy and services combine to lead to human flourishing? How do we have a clear understanding of what it is that energy provides?  How do we   meet our needs?  What is it that’s harmful? 

Theme: the world we live in today is much more complex than ever — we need to be able to expand the engineering mindset to a larger/broader scale, one that is values-centered. Question: is that a fair assessment? We need to think about a broader way of doing engineering or maintenance?? 

  • Not more complicated, more complex. We can’t handle complexity, we can handle complications.
  • Engineering has to think about  more values, and what values engineers want to approach. 
  • Guru: meta  point: engineers are dual citizens in the world of  both disasters and blessings, needing to bridge wonders and worst case scenarios. What matters is peer review,  good engineering needs to be open and transparent

June 6, 2022 – the concept of a global celebration on June 6 2269 (being promoted by 2269.co) is useful to think about. 

Closing

The ideas shared during this event confirmed that the practice of engineering must evolve to stay up to date with the challenges of an accelerating world.  That acceleration is being driven by global and technological factors that require new modes of thinking, planning, design, construction and maintenance.  But this is what engineers do, and the perspectives shared by the panelists provide encouraging evidence that the needed change are moving forward.

For more information on the Maintainers movement, follow the organization on Twitter and sign up for their quarterly newsletter and email listserv.  

For information on Long Now Boston, To stay up to date with Long Now Boston, check us out on our website longnowboston.org, or on  Facebook and Twitter. 

Chasing Oumuamua – Project Lyra

A Long Now Boston Conversation with Dr Martin Elvis (Harvard & Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics) on Project Lyra, a space mission to chase, catch and interrogate Oumuamua in 26 years.

Introduction:

On May 2, 2022, Dr Martin Elvis gave a spellbinding presentation on Project Lyra – a proposal to chase, cash and investigate the mysterious interstellar visitor named Oumuamua.  Harvard astronomer Abraham Avi Loeb had introduced Oumuamua to Long Now Boston in his 

Long Now Boston Talk “Life Among the Stars ” in December 2019.  Since then, Avi has raised a storm of controversy on his continued claim that Oumuamua is best explained as an artifact – a manufactured device of interstellar origins.  If this is true, the consequences to humanity would be profound – we are not alone in the Universe and the Fermi Paradox would be laid to rest.

Project Lyra

Martin reviewed the technical data on Oumuamua, noting that it is generally believed to be of interstellar origin, but that no consensus has emerged as to its nature.  Given its odd observed behavior and apparent acceleration after passing the sun, it is not unreasonable to think that it is an alien craft, either an accidental or anonymous METI (messaging by extraterrestrial intelligence).  Speculations continue to abound – and the consequences of one or another of these speculations being true are very significant.

The proposed solution is to launch a light, fast surveillance mission – Project Lyra – to intercept Oumuamua before it is gone forever.  If the resources and technical capacity can be assembled, the mission could be launched in 2028.  By using Jupiter as a slingshot in 2032, the mission could intercept Oumuamua by 2050, in 28 years.

Martin noted that assembling, launching, and monitoring the Project Lyra mission would be challenging.  We would learn a lot in the process of securing the opportunity to investigate this interstellar object close up.

Conclusion

Given the renewed interested in space missions in the past few years and the prospects of near-term space commercialization, many in the audience felt that Project Lyra in some form could and should be funded.  We may wait years to find out.  If the mission does proceed, we will still have to wait decades to learn, if we can, the mystery of Oumuamua’s nature and origins – is it a space anomaly or a space craft.

For a recent post on Project Lyra, check this out on PHYS.ORG.

Code of Engagement at Long Now Boston

We want all of the members and guests of Long Now Boston events to feel comfortable in our spaces, both in person and online. We have created a code of engagement to summarize our expectations for group interactions. We wish to encourage participant’s voices to be heard, with respect and inclusion. Our formal code is described here.

Long Now Boston is dedicated to fostering long-term thinking in the Greater Boston area. We are committed to bringing together individuals and partner organizations to generate inclusive and stimulating conversations focused on the concept of the deep past as well as the far future. The purpose of this statement is two-fold: i) to serve as a guideline for internal conduct among members of the Long Now Boston community that reflects the values of Long Now Boston and ii) to share with partners and collaborators as a statement of our values and our expectations for engagement.

Long Now Boston is committed to nurturing an atmosphere of mutual respect and collaborative curiosity. Together with our membership and partners, we seek to create spaces where we learn and share. We are serious about creating an environment that is inclusive, supportive, curious and open-minded. We are mindful of the existence of  disrespectful and harmful  attitudes and behaviors – such as racism, sexism, and oppression of any kind – and we strive to overcome and counteract these biases and behaviors.

Partners will have a mission and set of values that align with those of Long Now Boston. Partnerships set up with Long Now Boston will have a clear set of expectations and open lines of communication with allowance for growth and evolution.

Help Plan the Biggest Party EVER, To Be Held In 02269!

On Sunday, May 2, 02021, at 4:00 p.m. ET / 9:00 p.m. GMT, the 2269 Project and Long Now Boston invite you to a Long Now Boston Community conversation and celebration with Michael Ogden and Peter Dean, creators of the 2269 Project.

Zoom Room opens at 3:45 p.m. ET — come early and meet other Long Now thinkers. Tickets are available on Eventbrite.

The party starts at 4:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 2. But you can Jumpstart the conversation by filling out a fun pre-event survey:  CLICK HERE!

It’s time to celebrate the reawakening of the world from winter, from COVID, and from short term thinking! 

Description

On Sunday, May 2, 02021, at 4:00 p.m. ET / 9:00 p.m. GMT, the 2269 Project and Long Now Boston invite you to a Long Now Boston Community conversation and celebration with Michael Ogden and Peter Dean, creators of the 2269 Project.

What will the world be like in the year 02269?  How will our descendants take pleasure in their daily lives and celebrate the advances of the prior 250 years? Mike and Peter posed these questions a few years ago, and decided there was no time to waste before planning the greatest party of all time! The 2269 Project began with the production of an invitation poster designed to last 250 years. Each invitation will trace its own history of ownership and succession, linking future holders to each other and to those of us alive in 02021 who have the foresight to think far into the future.

Will your descendants be there? How will they dress? What games will they play? What food and drinks will they enjoy? What surprises will they discover as they open the time capsule containing the best that culture, art and literature of the past 250 years has produced?

Long Now Boston and the 2269 Project also invite you to contribute ideas via the pre-event survey (CLICK HERE!).  Respondents will be entered into a drawing for a free 2269 print to be held during the event on May 2.  Survey responses must be submitted by April 25 to be compiled before the May 2 conversation.  Mike and Pete will also offer an exclusive poster discount code to all those joining the event.

There will also be a virtual party following the conversation (BYOB only, please).  Join us for a convivial and inspiring conversation. Help imagine the future. Take a step towards the global celebration of a better future for our descendants.

Join the conversation and be part of the solution. 

General admission is $5; admission is free for students with ID. 

Audience participation is required.  😁

If Eventbrite tickets sell out pre-event, admission for walk-ups is unlikely to be available.

About the speakers:

Peter Dean runs Kite.  In 2012 he painstakingly recreated the Victorian circus poster that inspired John Lennon and Paul McCartney to write the song Being for the Benefit of Mr Kite! The following year, and with a little help from his friend Michael Ogden, he created the Time Traveller’s Invitation poster at the heart of Stephen Hawking’s famous time-travel experiment. In addition, Peter runs Novagram, a creative agency in London.

Michael Ogden is an award-winning Creative Director. He has successfully developed original concepts across multiple platforms. Michael has directed a virtual reality experience, now out in 130 arcades, co-authored 2DO Before I Die, a non-fiction book of ideas published in nine languages, worked extensively with Pixar’s story team, created and co-hosted Crowd Scene, a podcast about entrepreneurs, and led a creative concepts team at Sony PlayStation.

We’re proud and excited to welcome Mike & Pete, from London, to the Long Now Boston community.

Cambridge Innovation Center is an in-kind sponsor of this Long Now Boston conversation. We are very grateful for their support.

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Reforming Medicine: Applying the Lessons of SARS-CoV-2

Surgical face mask

Reforming Medicine: Applying the Lessons of SARS-CoV-2

Event Summary February 1 02021:  A conversation on SARS-COV2 inspired innovations, with Preston Estep and Florian Krammer.

Synopsis: The COVID-19 pandemic has been the single most disruptive event to strike the Globe in almost a century.  Those disruptions have disproportionately affected those with the least resources.  Yet the pandemic has also been a catalyst for innovations which will have long term benefits.  Among those are positive innovations in the biomedical field, specifically virus identification, advance preparation and advanced vaccine development and deployment, as well as critical lessons in global and national public health policy and administration.  

Continue reading “Reforming Medicine: Applying the Lessons of SARS-CoV-2”

The RSA – Inspiring 250 Years Progress

The RSA – Inspiring 250 Years Progress

On September 14, 2020, Long Now Boston welcomed Dr. Anton Howes, historian of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (RSA) for a conversation on the 250-year history of the RSA.  The RSA has demonstrated that non-profit, public interest organizations can live a long time – but they have to reinvent themselves constantly in the face of rapid social, cultural and technological change.  And they also have to have a powerful core vision.  For the RSA it is:

“Everyone is able to participate in creating a better future.”

Continue reading “The RSA – Inspiring 250 Years Progress”

Podcasts

Long Now Boston has started a podcast series, created from our conversation series. We’ve started with the conversations from our 02019-02020 series. Now you can listen to Long Now Boston conversations wherever you are! See below, or search for “Long Now Boston” wherever you get your podcasts.

Continue reading “Podcasts”

Inspiring Climate Change Action

On June 1, 02020, Long Now Boston welcomed climate activist Curt Newton, who led an interactive virtual workshop on climate change. Curt introduced our audience to En-ROADS, a science-based tool that simulates various environmental parameters, resulting in potential climate change solutions. By manipulating these parameters using the En-ROADS simulator, Curt demonstrated the connectivity of these parameters and the contribution that each has on potentially stabilizing global temperature and sea-level rise over the coming decades. En-ROADS is an educational tool that can help individuals and institutions think long-term about climate change and the policy options that can make a difference.

Continue reading “Inspiring Climate Change Action”